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What are the chances of sub-Saharan African teams winning the World Cup?

The chances of sub-Saharan African teams in the World Cup

Written by: Ayman Ragab

After Morocco became the first African team to reach the World Cup semi-finals in 2022, can a team from sub-Saharan Africa progress in 2026?

Africa's performance peaked at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar when Morocco became the first team from the continent to reach the semi-finals.

Even their reaching the quarter-finals was remarkable – the Atlas Lions were only the fourth African nation to get there.

Although Cameroon, Senegal and Ghana are the three other African teams to have reached the quarter-finals, North Africa has dominated the continent’s overall success in the World Cup and the African Cup of Nations.

Egypt holds the record for the most wins in the Africa Cup of Nations seven times, while three of the top five African teams qualified for the World Cup finals are Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria.

What are the chances of sub-Saharan African countries outperforming their northern neighbors in the tournament that kicks off on June 11?

Senegal

Participation in the World Cup: Four participations – 2002, 2018, 2022, 2026.
Best achievement: Quarter-finals.

Overall record: 12 matches, 5 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses, 16 goals scored, 17 goals conceded

. FIFA ranking: 14.

Prediction: Exit from the quarter-finals.

The Senegalese national team enters the 2026 World Cup with a deep sense of injustice that motivates its campaign.

The “Lions of Teranga” were stripped of their African Cup of Nations (AFCON) title by a decision of the Confederation of African Football (CAF), which considered the withdrawal of Senegal’s players and technical staff from the match in the middle of it as invalidating the January final, which was later awarded to Morocco, along with the cup, after their 3-0 victory.

In 2002, the Senegalese national team surprised everyone by reaching the quarter-finals in their first appearance in the World Cup, in the tournament hosted by Japan and South Korea.

More than two decades later, expectations have risen considerably – perhaps the highest expectations of all African teams, including Morocco.

The depth of the 26-player squad is seen as their greatest strength compared to their neighbors on the continent, but the power of their stars is also admired by rivals.

Sadio Mane remains the country's greatest export player. However, outstanding midfielder Pape Gueye, goalkeeper Edouard Mendy, and captain Kalidou Koulibaly are all capable of enriching almost any team in the tournament.

All three were born in France, and are looking forward to another opportunity to compete against the two-time winners of the competition.

Senegal's 1-0 victory over then-reigning champions France in the 2002 edition announced their rise as a rising football power, and their first match in Group A this time will be against Didier Deschamps' team in New York on June 16.

“It is always a pleasure to play against France. It is a country we know very well,” said Senegal coach Pape Bouna Thiaw, who moved to France at the age of 17.

He added: “If I lose even for a second my belief in my ability to win the World Cup with Senegal, I will resign.”.

Senegal's group is completed with the addition of Iraq and Norway.

Ghana

World Cup appearances: Five appearances – 2006, 2010, 2014, 2022, 2026.
Best achievement: Quarter-finals.

Overall record: 15 matches, 5 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses, 18 goals scored, 23 goals conceded

. FIFA ranking: 74.

Prediction: Exit from the quarter-finals.

Ghana has missed the World Cup only once since its first participation in 2006.

Four years after their world debut, they became the third African team to reach the quarter-finals in 2010.

Their preparation for this tournament was not smooth, as the coach was changed late in the season, with veteran Portuguese coach Carlos Queiroz replacing Otto Adu after a string of poor results.

The former Ghana international, who was born in Germany, led his country's team in Qatar 2022, but failure to qualify for the last African Cup of Nations and all-out defeats in their four notable matches in November and March led to his dismissal in early April.

This will be the fifth consecutive World Cup appearance for 73-year-old coach Queiroz, who has previously had African experiences with South Africa and Egypt, coached Real Madrid, and was Alex Ferguson's right-hand man at Manchester United.

Group L, which includes Panama, England and Croatia, looks like the “group of death” in the opening stage of the tournament, but with Manchester City’s Antoine Simeone leading a strong attack, Ghana fully expects to qualify.

“I think this country has enormous potential… It is a country of footballers,” Queiroz said.

However, the Black Stars will be without injured Tottenham striker Mohammed Kudus, who has become the team's talisman and a key factor in their last two successful qualification campaigns.

Ivory Coast

Participation in the World Cup: Four participations – 2006, 2010, 2014, 2026.
Best position: Group stage.

Overall record: 9 matches, 3 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses, 13 goals scored, 14 goals conceded.

FIFA ranking: 34.

Prediction: Exit from the quarter-finals.

The Ivory Coast national team returns to the world stage after a 12-year absence – an absence that had a significant impact following the retirement of some of its greatest players, such as Yaya Toure and Didier Drogba.

It has been a long rebuilding process for the Ivorians, but they have won two African Cup of Nations titles since their last World Cup appearance.

Their young attack, led by teenage striker Yann Diomande, alongside Manchester United's Simon Adingra and Amad Diallo, will be key to their chances.

When Ivory Coast hosted the Africa Cup of Nations two years ago, they almost got knocked out in the group stage, but they promoted Emery Faye from assistant coach to lead them through their final opening match, and then went on to win the title.

“I think Ivory Coast has the potential to achieve something extraordinary – so why not aim for the final?” Faye said ahead of the tournament which will begin with matches against Curaçao, Ecuador and former world champions Germany.

Cape Verde

World Cup appearances: Once – 2026,

Best center: Not available

Public record: Not available.

FIFA ranking: 69

Prediction: Exit from the group stage

Cape Verde, with a population of around 600,000, is one of the countries participating for the first time, and is the third smallest country to qualify in the tournament's long history.

They did not participate in the Africa Cup of Nations for the first time until 2013, but they reached the quarter-finals - an achievement that was repeated in 2023.

The task that awaits them now – which will mostly be led by their players scattered abroad – is a daunting one, as they face Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Spain, the European champions, in the group stage.

“We have always been aware of our talent, but we didn’t always believe it could take us further than we had achieved up to that point,” said manager Bobista, who was named African Coach of the Year in 2025.

“Therefore, it took courage to face any opponent. The first step in our success was a genuine belief in our potential. In other words, we changed the players” mentality.”

South Africa

World Cup appearances: Four appearances – 1998, 2002, 2010, 2026.
Best position: Group stage.

Overall record: 9 matches, 2 wins, 4 draws, 3 losses, 11 goals scored, 16 goals conceded.
FIFA ranking: 60.

Prediction: Elimination from the round of 32.

After a thriving start to their return to the international stage, with qualification for the 1998 World Cup, South Africa's fortunes have declined significantly in the past 16 years.

A first appearance in the finals since 2010 seems too late for a country hoping to reap the rewards of strong domestic growth as it turns to North America.

South African club Mamelodi Sundowns won the CAF Champions League title, and the Bafana Bafana national team includes eight players from their ranks. The team also features eight players from Orlando Pirates, the domestic league champions, who snatched the title from Sundowns by a single point.

“We can say that we have players from the best teams of the season. These players have a lot of experience at a high level,” commented Belgian-born South African coach Hugo Broos on his selection of 26 players.

“I am very happy that Sundowns won the Champions League, because I was afraid that if they lost, I would have players who would be very disappointed. Now, they all have a boost of confidence, and that helps a lot.”

South Africa is in the other so-called “group of death,” where it will face the Czech Republic, South Korea and co-host Mexico, which it will meet in the tournament’s opening match.

Democratic Republic of the Congo

World Cup appearances: Two – 1974 and 2026

Best position: Group stage,

Overall record: 3 matches, 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 0 goals scored, 14 goals conceded.
FIFA ranking: 46

Prediction: Exit in the quarter-finals

The Democratic Republic of Congo's only previous appearance was when it was still known as Zaire, when it participated in the 1974 finals in West Germany – the first sub-Saharan African team to go to the World Cup.

As the current continental champions, their crushing 9-0 defeat to Yugoslavia did little to raise the African flag at that time.

Much has changed since then for the continent and its largest nation. The Congolese players will arrive in North America with a FIFA ranking higher than three of the other five qualified teams from sub-Saharan Africa.

It took two playoff rounds to reach this edition – the African rounds saw Congo eliminate Cameroon and Nigeria, before overcoming Jamaica in extra time in their intercontinental playoff.

Most of the team's players were born in Europe, either in Belgium, France or Switzerland, in addition to Aaron Wan-Bissaka, who was born in London and was previously called up by England but missed the match due to injury.

“We are extremely proud that an entire generation has not been able to see their national team in the World Cup, but now they will see it there,” said their French coach, Sebastien Desabre, as quoted by Al Jazeera.

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