Written by Khaled Mahmoud

In a move that caused a major upheaval in the political landscape NigerianTwo of the most prominent opposition figures have announced a change of party allegiance, in a dramatic reorganization of political forces ahead of the presidential elections scheduled for January of next year.

Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankaso, who finished third and fourth respectively in the 2023 presidential race, have joined the Democratic Congress Party. Nigerian. This move opens the door to the formation of a strong “joint electoral list” to challenge the current president, Paula Tinbo.

The two leaders had left the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which still includes former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, the runner-up in the last election. While some see this shift as a fragmentation of the opposition, supporters of Obi and Kwankwaso maintain that this move will give their alliance greater focus and room to maneuver.

Popular and geographical weight

Both men have broad fan bases; Obi (64) is hugely popular among young people in the south through the “Obidente Movement,” while Kwankwaso (69) wields considerable influence in the north through the “Kwankwasia Movement.”.

In remarks made on Sunday, Obi accused the government of trying to sabotage the opposition, saying: “The same Nigerian state and its agents who created unnecessary crises within the Workers” Party and forced me to leave it now seem to be finding their way into the African Democratic Congress.”.

Reactions ranged from skepticism to anticipation.

The Nigerian presidency downplayed the significance of these defections, describing them as a “natural fluidity in democratic politics,” and stressing that its priority is economic reform and security.

Political analyst Bala Yusuf believes that the nomination of Obi for president and Kwankwaso for vice president poses a real threat to the ruling party. Conversely, Professor Ernest Erikie warned against a repeat of the 2023 scenario, when the opposition vote was fragmented, allowing Tinopo to win with only 371,000 votes, according to the BBC.

Internal challenges and legal obstacles

Despite the optimism surrounding the new alliance, major challenges remain, most notably the identity of the presidential candidate, as it has not yet been decided who will lead the list – an issue that has historically caused the collapse of numerous alliances in Nigeria.

It is also unclear how Abubakar, who has made great efforts to bring together the opposition leaders in the African Democratic Congress party, will react.

Given the legal battles, the leadership crisis in the African Democratic Congress party remains before the courts, reducing the time available for the opposition to get its ranks in order before the official start of election campaigns.