Mali's gold production is under pressure; it is expected to remain below 60 tons until 2029.
Amid tensions and controversial reforms
Written by Ziad Abdel Fattah:
A plan issued by Ministry of Mines In Mali, there are expectations that industrial gold production in the country will continue to decline, remaining below 60 tons annually until 2029, amid the repercussions of recent legislative reforms and ongoing tensions between the government and mining companies.
Gold production forecasts in Mali
According to the plan for the period from 2026 to 2029, gold production is expected to reach about 43.2 tons in 2026, before gradually rising to 51.2 tons in 2027, reaching its peak at 57 tons in 2028, and then declining again to 50 tons by 2029.
These projections follow a sharp decline in production in recent years, falling to 42.2 tons in 2025 compared to about 54.8 tons in 2024, a level far below the historical peak of 66.5 tons recorded in 2023.
Mali, one of Africa's largest gold producers, is seeking to boost its revenues from the sector through a new mining law passed in 2023, which grants the state a greater role in managing natural resources. However, these reforms have raised concerns among investors, particularly after a protracted dispute with Canadian company Barrick Gold, which culminated in the imposition of temporary government administration on the Loulou-Gounkoto complex before a subsequent settlement was reached.
The data also showed that production will remain mainly dependent on a number of major mines, most notably B2Gold’s Vikola mine, Barrick’s Lulu-Gonkoto complex, Resolute’s Siama mine, and the consortium-operated Sadiola mine.
In contrast, artisanal and small-scale gold production is expected to remain stable at around 6 tons per year during the same period, without significant changes.
Estimates also indicate that Mali’s industrial gold reserves will decline to around 748.6 tons by 2029, compared to 906.8 tons in 2026, reflecting additional pressure on the sector’s future.
Observers believe that continued regulatory tensions and high investment risks may limit the country's ability to restore record production levels, despite the great potential of Mali's mining sector.
