111 million tons of imported grain... Africa's tables held hostage by foreign capitals

Written by: Ayman Ragab

Despite Africa's enormous agricultural potential, the continent remains one of the world's largest grain importers, a paradox that reflects the scale of the challenges facing the achievement of food security. According to the latest report issued by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Africa is expected to import more than 111.7 million tons of grain during the 2026-2027 marketing season, confirming its continued heavy reliance on global markets to secure its food needs.

Data from the African Development Bank indicates that the continent has nearly 60% of unexploited arable land in the world, yet it remains heavily dependent on food imports, making its food security vulnerable to geopolitical shocks, logistical disruptions, and climate risks.

The “Food Outlook” report predicts that African cereal imports will reach 111.7 million tons during the 2026-2027 marketing season, compared to 114 million tons in the previous season. This limited decline does not reflect a structural shift in the continent’s food system, but is mainly due to improved crops in a number of North African countries, particularly Morocco, Algeria and Egypt.

African wheat imports will reach 55.1 million tons during the 2026-2027 season.

According to the report, the decline in wheat purchases is linked to improved domestic production and increased stockpiles in many importing countries. Nevertheless, Africa will still import more grain than most other major regions in the world.

This situation reveals a deep economic fragility, as any rise in global prices, any disruption to maritime transport, or any geopolitical crisis is directly reflected in public finances, foreign exchange reserves, and the purchasing power of citizens on the continent.

According to data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, African wheat imports will reach 55.1 million tons during the 2026-2027 season, compared to 58.4 million tons in the previous season. Egypt will remain the largest wheat importer in Africa with a total of 13.5 million tons, followed by Algeria with 8.5 million tons, and then Morocco with 5 million tons.

These figures show that North African countries account for the largest share of the continent’s reliance on imported grains, given the pivotal role that wheat plays in the diet of hundreds of millions of Africans.

This dependence has taken on a strategic dimension since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war in February 2022. Before the conflict, Russia and Ukraine together accounted for about 30% of the global wheat trade, while many African countries relied on the two countries to secure their food supplies.

The repercussions of the war led to a sharp rise in international prices, revealing the extent to which African food security is affected by crises thousands of kilometers outside the continent's borders. The impact was further exacerbated by the dependence of wheat imports on foreign exchange reserves, which raised food costs for both governments and households.

Meanwhile, maize has emerged as a new factor of food fragility, with the Food and Agriculture Organization forecasting that African maize imports will reach 30.3 million tons during the period 2026-2027, compared to 29.1 million tons in the previous year.

This increase reflects the transformations taking place in the continent's food and livestock systems, given the vital role that maize plays in the animal feed industry, and thus its direct link to the production of meat, milk and poultry.

Egypt is expected to import 15.5 million tons of corn, while Algeria and Morocco will import 5.1 million tons and 3.6 million tons respectively, which indicates that reliance on imported grains is no longer limited to bread and traditional products, but has extended to the entire food chain.

Animal protein prices

These indicators warn of the transmission of international shocks to animal protein prices, increasing inflationary pressures on local markets in Africa.

Geopolitical developments have also highlighted the fragility of global supply chains, as the war in Ukraine demonstrated that maritime routes and export corridors can determine the ability of many African countries to secure their food needs. More recently, tensions in the Red Sea have disrupted international shipping, impacting delivery times and transportation costs.

Added to this is the risk of escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for a significant portion of global energy trade. Any sustained disruption to shipping in the region could lead to higher energy and logistics costs, with indirect repercussions for agricultural markets.

These developments are of particular concern to African importing countries, as the price per ton of grain is no longer solely linked to its price in the country of origin, but is also affected by the costs of maritime transport, fuel, insurance, and geopolitical risks.

Although agricultural prospects have improved in a number of African countries thanks to more favorable climatic conditions, especially with the expected recovery of wheat crops in Morocco and Algeria after two years of drought, this improvement remains largely temporary, as it is more related to the return of rainfall than to structural changes in agricultural systems.

Agricultural production in the continent remains highly dependent on weather conditions, at a time when drought is increasing in many areas as a result of climate change, which explains the continued high levels of imports despite the progress made by some countries.

According to the African Development Bank, Africa spends tens of billions of dollars annually on food imports, an expenditure that not only represents an economic burden but also reflects a continuous transfer of wealth abroad.

Imports of 55.1 million tons of wheat and 30.3 million tons of corn

FAO data indicates that the continent will continue to import 55.1 million tons of wheat and 30.3 million tons of maize, totaling 111.7 million tons of grain, quantities that reflect a production deficit that temporary good crops are not enough to compensate for.

In light of this, the issue of food sovereignty has become a central issue among the economic challenges facing Africa, after recent crises proved that countries that rely heavily on food imports also become hostages to decisions and developments made in Moscow, Kyiv, Washington, Beijing, Brussels, or along the world’s main shipping lanes.

Food security in Africa is no longer just an agricultural issue, but has become a matter related to economic stability, financial resilience and national security, at a time when the report’s data shows that North Africa accounts for the majority of the continent’s grain imports, and that improved productivity in some countries is still only able to temporarily reduce dependence on imports.