A worrying fuel gap threatens Africa: a deficit of 86 million tons is expected by 2040.

Written by Omnia Hassan

The African continent faces a growing security challenge EnergyWith a projected deficit in refined fuels reaching 86 million tons by 2040, according to a recent report by the African Finance Corporation.

The report reveals that global geopolitical tensions, particularly in vital energy corridors, have exposed the fragility of Africa’s heavy reliance on external supplies.

Excessive reliance on imports

The report indicates that more than 70% of refined fuel in Africa It is imported from outside the continent, in parallel with annual imports of basic commodities estimated at around $230 billion, including food, plastics, steel and fertilizers. This dependence reflects a clear industrial gap and increases the vulnerability of African economies to external shocks and the volatility of global markets.

Demand is rising and the gap is widening

According to estimates, demand for fuel imports will rise from 74 million tons in 2023 to 86 million tons by 2040. This growth in demand is met with weak domestic refining capacity, exacerbating the supply gap and putting additional pressure on supply chains.

The Strait of Hormuz reveals the fragility

Disruptions related to the Strait of Hormuz have increased concerns about Africa's ability to secure its fuel needs, as it is a major route for global oil shipments, and these developments have highlighted the extent to which the continent is vulnerable to supply bottlenecks coming from outside its borders.

Dangote proposes a model for a solution

During a summit in Nairobi, Nigerian businessman Aliko Dangote outlined plans for expansion beyond West Africa, proposing the construction of a refinery in East Africa comparable to his giant 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Nigeria. He affirmed his readiness to implement the project should government support be provided, a move that could represent a shift toward regional self-sufficiency.

A call to reformulate the economic model

For his part, Kenyan President William Ruto called for a review of the prevailing economic approach, warning that reliance on external financing and the export of raw materials hinders long-term development and stressing the need to shift towards local manufacturing and the production of finished goods within the continent.

Investment or crisis

The report concludes that the lack of serious investment in the refining sector and industrial infrastructure will exacerbate fuel shortages and leave African economies vulnerable to the volatility of global markets. While the challenges are mounting, the continent also has an opportunity to rebuild its industrial base and strengthen its energy security from within.