East Africa's booming tourism sector under threat from jet fuel crisis

Jet fuel prices rose sharply between February and April 2026 following supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in The Middle EastThis has led to a narrowing of global jet fuel markets and increased costs in import-dependent African economies.

According to reports, approximately 70% of Africa's jet fuel imports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, exposing the continent to external shocks in global energy supply chains and rapid price transmission to local aviation markets.

In Kenya, jet fuel prices have risen from $0.74 to $1.40 per liter in a matter of months, forcing airlines to adjust their operations in response to rising production costs.

Cost reduction in the aviation sector

Kenya Airways has reduced its flights to the Middle East by between 20% and 30%, while increasing the size of aircraft on the remaining routes to maintain passenger numbers.

Meanwhile, Turkish Airlines suspended or cancelled 10 African destinations as part of a comprehensive review of its flight schedule for summer 2026, while Air France-KLM raised prices for long-haul flights, and Lufthansa cut thousands of flights worldwide, reflecting broader efforts to reduce costs in the aviation sector.

Fuel remains one of the most important cost elements in airline economics, representing between 30% and 40% of operating expenses in African markets, and reaching 55% for low-cost airlines.

At this level of risk, airlines typically resort to three response mechanisms: raising ticket prices, reducing the number of flights, or withdrawing from less profitable routes. In practice, all three adjustments occur simultaneously, further restricting air access to and within East Africa.

This shift comes at a sensitive moment for the region’s tourism sector, which has barely returned to sustainable growth after the shock of the coronavirus pandemic.

In Kenya, the number of international arrivals fell from about 2.05 million in 2019 to 568,000 in 2020, before recovering to an estimated 2.7 million in 2025.

At the regional level, similar recovery patterns are emerging, supported by the expansion of tourism infrastructure and investment strategies in tourist destinations.

Tanzania recorded about 5.36 million tourists in 2024, while Uganda's arrivals reached about 1.6 million tourists in 2025, thus approaching pre-pandemic levels.

These gains have been boosted by airport expansion projects and tourism capacity development, including the development of Kilimanjaro International Airport and Zanzibar Airport in Tanzania, and Bugesera International Airport in Rwanda, as well as broader investments in the transport sector in preparation for the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations in Uganda.

Current fuel crisis

However, the current fuel crisis has begun to reshape the recovery trajectory across the aviation sector. As airlines seek to optimize their networks under increasing cost pressures, more capacity is being concentrated on high-yield routes, while less profitable and less frequented African destinations face reduced flight frequencies or complete suspension.

Secondary gateways that rely on stable connection lines are more vulnerable, as reduced services directly affect safari trips, coastal tourism flows, and regional travel packages.

The impact is exacerbated by timing. According to World Bank estimates, mid-year travel seasons typically account for a significant portion of annual arrivals to East Africa. Consequently, any reduction in seat availability during this period translates directly into decreased visitor flows, lower occupancy rates, and reduced tourism revenues in the hospitality and transportation sectors.

Reliance on foreign airlines remains a structural obstacle to connecting East Africa with long-haul flights, limiting the region’s control over pricing, route stability, and capacity allocation.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports on air transport prospects in Africa, intercontinental air traffic to African destinations remains dominated by non-African airlines, particularly on Europe-Africa and Middle East-Africa routes, reinforcing external control over key tourism gateways.

In this context, pricing and capacity decisions affecting tourism in East Africa are increasingly influenced by external factors, particularly by global airlines that adjust their routes based on fuel costs and profitability cycles.

The World Bank has previously noted that air transport restrictions in Africa directly reduce the competitiveness of tourism by increasing travel costs and reducing the elasticity of demand, especially in long-haul leisure travel markets.