Tigray again... Is the Ethiopian state shaking from within?

Written by Omnia Hassan

The Tigray region crisis is back at the forefront of the political scene in EthiopiaTo reveal a peace that is still fragile after a bloody war that exhausted the country.

The roots of the crisis have not been addressed.

Despite the Pretoria Agreement, which halted fighting between the federal government in Ethiopia According to the Tigray People's Liberation Front, recent developments indicate that the roots of the crisis have not been addressed, but merely postponed. Between faltering transitional arrangements and renewed power struggles, the country appears to still be standing on unstable political ground.

The roots of the Ethiopian state crisis

The crisis is linked to the Ethiopian state structure based on ethnic federalism, which granted regions broad powers but deepened local identities at the expense of national identity.

As competition between the central government and the regions intensified, Tigray emerged as a chronic point of tension within the governance equation, especially with the political shifts that followed 2018, which drastically redistributed power and weakened traditional balances.

Is the Pretoria Agreement a settlement or a temporary truce?

The Pretoria Agreement was intended to end the war and open a new political path, but it focused more on security aspects than addressing the root causes of the conflict.

Over time, gaps emerged in implementation, particularly in the areas of disarmament, reconstruction, and power-sharing, making the agreement more of a temporary truce than a final settlement.

Tensions escalate within Tigray

The developments point to growing internal divisions in the region, with disagreements over the management of the transitional phase and the return of some former institutions.

This situation has created a state of political and security confusion, and has increased the likelihood of renewed friction between local parties and the federal government.

State boundaries in managing diversity

Ethiopia faces a structural challenge in managing its ethnic diversity, as the state has failed to build a comprehensive national contract, and the multiplicity of power centers and the presence of local armed formations have made the state’s monopoly on violence incomplete, which weakens its ability to impose lasting stability.

A comprehensive political project that redefines the relationship

The Tigray crisis reveals that the problem in Ethiopia is not a war that has ended, but rather a state structure that is still searching for its balance. Between a fragile peace and the possibility of renewed tension, the country’s future remains dependent on its ability to transform temporary settlements into a comprehensive political project that reshapes the relationship between the center and the regions.