Written by Basel Abdelghani

Dr. Iman Al-Shaarawi, Director of Masarat Center for Strategic Studies and a specialist in African affairs, confirmed that the American-Iranian war has already affected a wide number of African countries, not as a direct party to the conflict, but as part of the highly interconnected global economic system, where no major international conflict can be isolated from its far-reaching effects on emerging markets, especially Africa.

Al-Shaarawi explained in exclusive statements to “Zoom Africa News” that the economic effects of the war appeared quickly in the global energy markets, as the escalation of military tensions led to a significant rise in oil and gas prices, which put additional pressure on African energy-importing countries, especially in the east and west of the continent.

Increase in inflation rates

She pointed out that this increase was directly reflected in the costs of transportation, production and electricity, which contributed to increased inflation rates in many African economies, raised the cost of living for citizens, and forced some governments to reconsider their subsidy and public spending policies.

Al-Shaarawi added that one of the most serious repercussions is the disruption of global trade and supply chains, especially with the impact on maritime shipping lines and the increased cost of insurance for ships and goods, which has led to delays in the arrival of basic commodities and raw materials to African markets, as well as higher prices for imported products, including food, medicine and building materials.

She pointed out that this disruption has also directly affected the competitiveness of African exports, as a result of increased transportation costs and fluctuations in international shipping rates.

Investment markets are affected

In the same context, Iman El Shaarawy confirmed that the war has led to a state of caution in global investment markets, as investors’ appetite for risk has declined, which has affected foreign direct investment flows to the African continent. She explained that many development and investment projects have slowed down or been re-evaluated, in light of the high level of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, noting that emerging markets are usually the most affected in such circumstances.

She also noted that currency prices in a number of African countries have experienced additional pressure as a result of global market turmoil and rising import bills, leading to a widening trade deficit in some economies and increased pressure on foreign exchange reserves at African central banks.

Tourism sector

Regarding the tourism sector, the Director of the Masarat Center for Strategic Studies explained that the war contributed to a relative decline in international tourism to the continent, as a result of the high costs of travel and insurance, in addition to the global anxiety about the geopolitical situation, which affected countries that rely heavily on tourism as a major source of hard currency, such as the countries of North and East Africa.

Airfare price increase

She also pointed out that global airlines have raised ticket prices or rescheduled some flights, which has increased the cost of travel to the continent.

Food security is affected

She added that the repercussions of the war were not limited to the economic aspects only, but also extended to food security, as the prices of grains and fertilizers were affected globally, which directly impacts African countries that import food, and increases the risks of food inflation and the decline in purchasing power for the most vulnerable groups. She pointed out that some African countries that depend on international maritime routes, such as the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, were indirectly affected as a result of the disruption of navigation and the increase in shipping costs, which led to a decrease or fluctuation in revenues from maritime transport and logistics services.

She added that, in light of these negative repercussions, some African oil-producing countries have temporarily benefited from the global rise in crude oil prices, as this has been reflected in an increase in their oil export revenues and a relative improvement in their balance of payments, which has given them a larger financial margin during the crisis period. However, this benefit remains temporary and conditional on the continuation of the state of volatility in global markets.

Iman El Shaarawy concluded her remarks by emphasizing that the US-Iranian war, although not taking place within the African continent, has once again revealed the fragility of African economies’ connection to global fluctuations, stressing that the current stage requires African countries to accelerate the strengthening of regional integration, diversify trade partners, increase reliance on local production, and build more flexible economic policies capable of absorbing external shocks and dealing with successive international crises.