{"id":9676,"date":"2026-05-21T18:09:58","date_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:09:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zoomafricanews.com\/?p=9676"},"modified":"2026-05-21T18:09:58","modified_gmt":"2026-05-21T16:09:58","slug":"%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b5%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%87%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%ad-%d9%84%d9%80-%d8%b2%d9%88%d9%85-%d8%a3%d9%81%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7-%d9%86","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zoomafricanews.com\/fr\/%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%85%d8%b5%d8%b1%d9%81%d9%8a-%d9%87%d8%a7%d9%86%d9%8a-%d8%a3%d8%a8%d9%88%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%81%d8%aa%d9%88%d8%ad-%d9%84%d9%80-%d8%b2%d9%88%d9%85-%d8%a3%d9%81%d8%b1%d9%8a%d9%83%d8%a7-%d9%86\/","title":{"rendered":"Le banquier Hani Aboul-Fotouh a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 \u00e0 Zoom Africa News : \u00ab Je m'attends \u00e0 ce que le taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat reste inchang\u00e9 lors de la r\u00e9union de la Banque centrale. \u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00c9crit par Ziad Abdel Fattah :<\/strong><\/p>\n

Alors que la plupart des analystes \u00e9gyptiens s'attendent \u00e0 ce que le taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat reste inchang\u00e9 pendant la r\u00e9union Comit\u00e9 de politique mon\u00e9taire de la Banque centrale<\/a> L'\u00c9gypte, la multinationale am\u00e9ricaine de services financiers et d'investissement Goldman Sachs, l'une des institutions bancaires les plus c\u00e9l\u00e8bres d'Am\u00e9rique, envisage une hausse des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat de 11,3 millions de yuans lors de sa r\u00e9union d'aujourd'hui, ce qui laisse toutes les options sur la table ce jeudi, jusqu'\u00e0 la publication de la d\u00e9cision.<\/p>\n

Le banquier \u00e9gyptien de renom Hani Abu El-Fotouh a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 qu'apr\u00e8s la fixation des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 191\u00a0000\u00a0\u20b9 pour les d\u00e9p\u00f4ts et \u00e0 201\u00a0000\u00a0\u20b9 pour les pr\u00eats lors de la r\u00e9union du 2\u00a0avril, les donn\u00e9es d'avril\u00a02026 se sont r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9es moins alarmantes que pr\u00e9vu. L'inflation mensuelle a chut\u00e9 \u00e0 seulement 1,11\u00a0000\u00a0\u20b9, contre 3,21\u00a0000\u00a0\u20b9 en mars, soit le rythme mensuel le plus faible depuis plus d'un an. L'inflation annuelle a \u00e9galement diminu\u00e9, passant de 15,21\u00a0000\u00a0\u20b9 \u00e0 14,91\u00a0000\u00a0\u20b9, et l'inflation sous-jacente \u00e0 14,01\u00a0000\u00a0\u20b9, contre 14,01\u00a0000\u00a0\u20b9.<\/p>\n

L'expert bancaire a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 \u00e0 Zoom Africa News que ces chiffres confirment la poursuite de la tendance \u00e0 la baisse, mais qu'ils sont encore loin de l'objectif officiel de la Banque centrale (7% \u00b12), notant que l'\u00e9cart n'est pas inf\u00e9rieur \u00e0 6%, ce qui signifie que la politique mon\u00e9taire se trouve toujours dans la zone d'attente obligatoire et non dans la zone de confort.<\/p>\n

Une inflation plus faible donne \u00e0 la banque centrale une marge de man\u0153uvre.<\/h2>\n
\"\u0627\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0643
Banque centrale d'\u00c9gypte<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

L\u2019expert bancaire estime que le recul de l\u2019inflation mensuelle donne \u00e0 la Banque centrale d\u2019\u00c9gypte une marge de man\u0153uvre avant la r\u00e9union de mai, et que les donn\u00e9es s\u2019am\u00e9liorent dans ce sens, mais l\u2019\u00e9cart entre la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 et l\u2019objectif de la Banque centrale reste important et ne permet aucune nouvelle baisse des taux d\u2019int\u00e9r\u00eat avant le troisi\u00e8me trimestre 2026. .<\/p>\n

Il a expliqu\u00e9 que ce qui est frappant dans les donn\u00e9es actuelles, c'est que inflation<\/a> Le taux d'inflation sous-jacente reste proche du taux d'inflation global, ce qui indique que les pressions se sont d\u00e9plac\u00e9es des biens volatils vers les services, les loyers et les transports, sugg\u00e9rant que les accumulations ant\u00e9rieures des taux de change et des prix de l'\u00e9nergie ont besoin de plus de temps pour absorber le choc.<\/p>\n

Il a d\u00e9clar\u00e9 : \u00ab De mon point de vue, l'\u00e9cart d'un seul point de pourcentage entre l'inflation globale et l'inflation sous-jacente prouve que toute nouvelle vague inflationniste venant de l'\u00e9tranger trouvera rapidement un terrain fertile ici. \u00bb.<\/p>\n

Bien que la situation concernant la liquidit\u00e9 en dollars soit relativement meilleure, les r\u00e9serves restant solides \u00e0 53 milliards de dollars, les avoirs \u00e9trangers nets \u00e9tant positifs \u00e0 21,36 milliards de dollars et les envois de fonds des \u00c9gyptiens de l'\u00e9tranger ayant atteint 22,1 milliards de dollars au cours du seul premier semestre.<\/p>\n

Il a soulign\u00e9 que la sortie de capitaux sp\u00e9culatifs de 8 \u00e0 10 milliards de dollars depuis le d\u00e9but de l'ann\u00e9e exerce une pression sur le taux de change, qui s'\u00e9tablit autour de 53,16 livres \u00e9gyptiennes pour un dollar. De m\u00eame, les recettes du canal de Suez, qui s'\u00e9l\u00e8vent \u00e0 2,2 milliards de dollars (premier semestre), ne t\u00e9moignent d'aucune hausse, et la dette ext\u00e9rieure de 163,9 milliards de dollars demeure un fardeau important, la hausse des taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat mondiaux alourdissant les \u00e9ch\u00e9ances de la dette en dollars. Quant \u00e0 l'indice des directeurs d'achat (PMI), \u00e0 46,6, il confirme que le secteur priv\u00e9 est toujours en contraction pour le dix-huiti\u00e8me mois cons\u00e9cutif.<\/p>\n

Il a expliqu\u00e9 que, malgr\u00e9 ces pressions, des signes encourageants se manifestent\u00a0: le Fonds mon\u00e9taire international pr\u00e9voit une baisse de l\u2019inflation \u00e0 13,21\u00a0TP3T d\u2019ici fin juin\u00a02026, puis \u00e0 11,11\u00a0TP3T au cours du prochain exercice budg\u00e9taire, avec pour objectif un retour \u00e0 un chiffre \u00e0 moyen terme. Cela signifie que la tendance \u00e0 la baisse est bien amorc\u00e9e, mais qu\u2019elle prendra du temps.<\/p>\n

Il est fort probable que la banque centrale maintienne ses taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat inchang\u00e9s lors de sa prochaine r\u00e9union, car l'inflation annuelle reste nettement sup\u00e9rieure \u00e0 l'objectif et toute baisse pr\u00e9cipit\u00e9e serait per\u00e7ue comme un signe de risque d'inflation galopante. La banque centrale doit \u00e9valuer la p\u00e9rennit\u00e9 du repli mensuel de l'inflation\u00a0: s'agit-il d'une r\u00e9elle am\u00e9lioration ou d'une simple accalmie saisonni\u00e8re\u00a0? L'impact des tensions g\u00e9opolitiques et des prix de l'\u00e9nergie est ind\u00e9niable et pourrait relancer l'inflation import\u00e9e \u00e0 tout moment.<\/p>\n

Par ailleurs, le banquier estime que le plus grand risque est que le maintien de taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e9lev\u00e9s \u00e9touffe toute chance de reprise pour le secteur priv\u00e9, qui souffre d'une contraction depuis plus d'un an et demi, comme en t\u00e9moigne l'indice des directeurs d'achat.<\/p>\n

En revanche, toute baisse pr\u00e9matur\u00e9e pourrait chasser les capitaux sp\u00e9culatifs restants et affaiblir \u00e0 nouveau la livre sterling, ce qui pourrait contraindre la banque centrale \u00e0 relever les taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat ult\u00e9rieurement, dans un sc\u00e9nario \u00e0 double perte.<\/p>\n

Il s'attendait donc \u00e0 ce que le taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat reste inchang\u00e9 lors de la prochaine r\u00e9union, avec des signaux prudents, et que la premi\u00e8re occasion de baisser les taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat se pr\u00e9senterait au troisi\u00e8me trimestre 2026, si l'inflation continuait de diminuer et que les risques ext\u00e9rieurs s'att\u00e9nuaient, car le sc\u00e9nario d'une baisse imm\u00e9diate semble d\u00e9sormais tr\u00e8s improbable et celui d'une hausse forc\u00e9e reste une possibilit\u00e9 tr\u00e8s faible, mais n'est pas \u00e0 exclure en cas d'effondrement soudain de la livre sterling ou de hausse significative et inattendue de l'inflation.<\/p>\n

En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, le maintien du taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat inchang\u00e9 est l'issue la plus probable.<\/h2>\n

En r\u00e9sum\u00e9, compte tenu du recul de l'inflation mensuelle alors que l'inflation annuelle reste tr\u00e8s \u00e9loign\u00e9e de l'objectif et de l'\u00e9quilibre des risques entre l'\u00e9touffement du secteur priv\u00e9 et la perte de contr\u00f4le sur les prix, il estime que le maintien du taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat inchang\u00e9 lors de la prochaine r\u00e9union du Comit\u00e9 de politique mon\u00e9taire est l'option la plus probable.<\/p>\n

Dans le m\u00eame contexte, Goldman Sachs, l'une des principales banques am\u00e9ricaines d'envergure mondiale, a pr\u00e9dit que la Banque centrale d'\u00c9gypte augmenterait aujourd'hui les taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat sur les d\u00e9p\u00f4ts et les pr\u00eats, dans le but de contrer les pressions inflationnistes potentielles.<\/p>\n

Selon les pr\u00e9visions de la banque qui circulent aujourd'hui, jeudi, le taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat sur la livre \u00e9gyptienne passera \u00e0 20% pour les d\u00e9p\u00f4ts et \u00e0 21% pour les pr\u00eats, au lieu de 19% et 20% respectivement, si la banque centrale rel\u00e8ve le taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat.<\/p>\n

Les pr\u00e9visions de Goldman Sachs contredisent les attentes des analystes, des banquiers et des \u00e9conomistes qui avaient unanimement pr\u00e9dit que le taux d'int\u00e9r\u00eat resterait inchang\u00e9 pour la deuxi\u00e8me fois cons\u00e9cutive lors de la r\u00e9union de la banque centrale d'aujourd'hui.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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…<\/p>","protected":false},"author":15,"featured_media":9670,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[50,217,57],"tags":[3756,2650,3655,73,214,3759],"class_list":["post-9676","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ecnmc-anls","category-slider","category-egypt","tag-3756","tag-2650","tag-3655","tag-73","tag-214","tag-3759"],"yoast_head":"\n\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0635\u0631\u0641\u064a \u0647\u0627\u0646\u064a \u0623\u0628\u0648\u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0648\u062d \u0644\u0640 \u0632\u0648\u0645 \u0623\u0641\u0631\u064a\u0643\u0627 \u0646\u064a\u0648\u0632: \u0623\u0631\u062c\u062d \u062a\u062b\u0628\u064a\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0641\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0627\u062c\u062a\u0645\u0627\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0643 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0631\u0643\u0632\u064a - Zoom Africa News<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" 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