Mozambique secures funding for Rwandan forces to protect gas fields... Will Kigali succeed in establishing security in Cabo Delgado?

Written by Mohamed Ragab

In a new development reflecting the interconnectedness of security and energy issues in Africa, Rwanda announced that its government Mozambique It succeeded in securing the necessary funding to continue the deployment of Rwandan forces in the Cabo Delgado region in the north of the country, after a decline in European support for the military mission, which is considered one of the most prominent security operations on the continent in recent years.

Mozambique secures funding for Rwandan forces to protect gas fields.

In 2021, Rwanda deployed its forces at Maputo’s request to support the Mozambican army against an insurgency linked to the Islamic State, a move that helped recapture strategic areas and set the conditions for the relaunch of Total Energies’ $20 billion giant gas project, despite continued sporadic attacks by the rebels. Details of the financial and security agreement between Kigali and Mozambique remain confidential.

Background of the security crisis

Since 2017, the gas-rich province of Cabo Delgado has become a hotbed of escalating violence due to an armed insurgency linked to the Islamic State, with armed groups carrying out deadly attacks targeting villages, civilians, and giant energy projects.

The escalating attacks have killed thousands and displaced hundreds of thousands, and have forced major international companies to suspend their operations, most notably Total Energies, which halted its massive liquefied natural gas project due to security risks.

In 2021, the Mozambican government requested direct military support from Rwanda, which sent troops to the north of the country to help retake areas seized by militants.

Rwanda deployed about 4,000 troops to Mozambique in 2021, at the request of the Mozambican authorities, to help them confront ISIS, which at the time had seized control of parts of the gas-rich Cabo Delgado province.

Rwandan forces succeeded in a short period of time in recapturing a number of cities and strategic locations, which the Mozambican government considered a turning point in the war against the insurgency.

Over time, Rwanda became an influential security player in the region, leveraging its military expertise and rapid deployment capabilities at a time when local forces faced significant difficulties in containing armed threats.

The Rwandan presence has also helped restore confidence among international investors, especially after Total Energies announced the resumption of its giant gas project earlier this year.

Why has the European Union declined?

The Rwandan military mission was receiving partial financial support from the European Union, but international reports in recent months have indicated that Brussels' enthusiasm for continuing to fund the operation has waned.

This is linked to several factors, including European financial pressures, along with criticisms related to human rights issues and regional policies of Rwanda, especially in the Great Lakes region.

Last March, Kigali warned of the possibility of withdrawing its forces if sufficient funding was not provided, raising widespread concerns about a return to deteriorating security in northern Mozambique.

Despite Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe announcing that Mozambique had secured the necessary funding, details of the financial agreement remain undisclosed.

Gas at the heart of the battle

Mozambique has one of the largest natural gas reserves in Africa, specifically in the Rovuma offshore basin off the coast of Cabo Delgado.

The government is counting on gas projects to transform the country into a regional energy powerhouse capable of attracting billions of dollars and improving the local economy.

However, the continued security threats make the future of these projects dependent on the ability of the government and its allies to establish stability in the troubled region.

Despite the military successes, analysts confirm that armed attacks have not stopped completely, but have turned into sporadic operations that rely on hit-and-run tactics and target rural areas.

A battle for influence that transcends borders

Observers believe that the continued Rwandan military presence is not only about fighting the insurgency, but also reflects a regional and international power struggle in a region rich in natural resources.

While Mozambique seeks to protect its energy investments, Rwanda is working to strengthen its security and political presence in Africa, at a time when international powers and major companies are competing to secure a foothold in the promising African gas market.

Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe said last Tuesday that Rwanda would keep its troops in the region after the Mozambican government secured the necessary funding to continue the military operation, months after Rwanda warned it would withdraw its forces due to the lack of sufficient financial guarantees, amid reports that the European Union was hesitant to renew its support for the mission.

The Rwandan Foreign Minister explained that his country would continue to work directly with Mozambique, following the Europeans' reluctance to continue covering part of the costs of the operation with the European Peace Fund. He said that the Mozambican authorities had confirmed that they would continue to finance this deployment, without specifying the value of the funding or its duration.

The minister wrote on the social media platform ”X”: “The cooperation between the two governments has been fruitful and will continue with the same momentum, as the efforts of the Rwandan security forces in Cabo Delgado are highly appreciated by the sister country of Mozambique.”.

Mozambique is banking on a security agreement it signed with Rwanda, the details of which have not been published or disclosed, but which allows for the deployment of Rwandan forces, who will be the only support in confronting ISIS, after the complete withdrawal of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces mission from northern Mozambique, due to logistical and financial difficulties.