Is the crisis in Somalia escalating following accusations of arms smuggling between Puntland and Mogadishu?

Written by: Mohammed Omran

Witnesses Somali arena Tensions have escalated sharply between the Puntland region and the federal government in Mogadishu, amid mutual accusations of arms smuggling and inciting internal unrest, in a fragile security and political environment.

Tensions escalate between Puntland and the Federal Government of Somalia

Puntland authorities accused the federal government in Mogadishu of being behind arms smuggling operations into the region, with the aim of fueling internal conflicts and inciting tribal disputes, through political parties and former figures, according to a statement issued by the Puntland Ministry of Security.

The ministry warned that the continuation of what it described as smuggling operations poses a direct threat to security and stability in Somalia, stressing that the current situation could push the country towards further tension and division.

The statement also included accusations of alleged coordination between the federal government and external parties, with the aim of arming tribal groups and pushing them into internal conflicts, which Puntland considered an attempt to undermine stability in the region.

In an escalation, the Puntland authorities announced a ban on the operation of any non-local security forces within their territory, along with preventing the entry of officials and appointees from the federal government, in a move that reflects the depth of the dispute between the two sides.

These developments come at a time when relations between the central government and the federal states have reached a critical stage, especially after the end of the federal administration’s term on May 15, 2026, which has exacerbated political and security disputes.

In a related context, leaders of the Somali opposition called for broad international intervention to address the escalating political crisis, stressing the need to find a comprehensive mechanism to resolve the dispute over the electoral process, and rejecting any unilateral mediation between the parties.

These developments also coincide with regional diplomatic moves, as Turkey seeks to play a mediating role in the crisis, amid reports of efforts led by Turkish agencies to bring the views of the federal government and the opposition closer, in an attempt to contain the escalation and open a path for political dialogue.

Observers warn that the continuation of this escalation could lead to further division within Somalia, amid increasing political and security complexities that threaten the chances of stability in the next stage.