Drought followed by the risk of floods and heavy rains... Kenya prepares for El Niño 2026
The phenomenon will be of at least moderate intensity.
Written by Ziad Abdel Fattah:
The authority launched Meteorology Kenya issued an early warning about the potential development of the El Niño phenomenon during 2026, predicting that the country would face severe climatic fluctuations starting with drought conditions during the middle of the year, before turning into heavy rains and possible floods during the last months of the year.
The possibility of El Niño developing during June to August
The agency said in a recent statement that global climate models indicate a probability of between 80% and 82% for the development of the El Niño phenomenon during the period from June to August 2026, while the chances of it continuing until the end of the year rise to between 90% and 96%.
The agency explained that current forecasts indicate the phenomenon will be of at least moderate intensity, with the possibility of reaching strong levels, stressing that it is closely monitoring global climate developments due to the potentially significant impacts on weather patterns across Kenya.
The effects of El Niño will not be uniform.
She added that the effects of El Niño will not be uniform across all regions, as the country anticipates a varied climate path throughout the year. During the June, July, and August season, large parts of Kenya are likely to experience below-average or near-average rainfall, particularly in the highlands west of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and the northwest of the country.
In contrast, dry and sunny conditions are expected across most of the southeast and northeast, with temperatures above average. Coastal areas may experience near-average or slightly above-average rainfall, while Nairobi and the surrounding highlands are expected to be cool and occasionally cloudy with a chance of light rain.
Despite forecasts of drought during the middle of the year, the agency warned of a significant change in weather conditions during the October, November and December season, as the El Niño phenomenon is usually associated with increased rainfall rates in Kenya and East Africa.
The agency indicated that the last months of 2026 may witness above-normal rainfall, which increases the risk of flooding, damage to infrastructure, and disruption of agricultural activities and transport networks in a number of regions.
She also pointed out that the effects of El Niño may be strengthened if the «Indian Ocean Dipole» phenomenon shifts from its current neutral to a positive state in the coming months, which usually leads to increased rainfall in East Africa when it coincides with the El Niño phenomenon.
The agency stressed that El Niño does not operate in isolation from other climatic factors, emphasizing the importance of monitoring the developments of the Indian Ocean Dipole as one of the main factors affecting the intensity and distribution of rainfall in Kenya.
Kenya may face extreme weather conditions
The forecasts reflect growing concerns among climate experts that Kenya will face extreme weather conditions in 2026, combining drought and floods in the same year, posing significant challenges to agriculture, water resource management, and disaster preparedness.
In closing, the Kenya Meteorological Service called on citizens, local authorities and disaster management agencies to follow official updates continuously and take the necessary measures to deal with any possible climate developments during the coming months.
