Nigeria's crude oil production rose in March to 1.38 million barrels per day, compared to 1.31 million barrels in February, according to data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This increase reflects a gradual recovery after months of operational disruptions and maintenance work, but it is still below the country's allocated quota of 1.5 million barrels per day.

Is the gap in figures raw or condensed?

Secondary sources used by OPEC show slightly higher estimates, indicating that production reached 1.46 million barrels per day.

In contrast, local authorities, led by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited, are talking about stronger figures approaching 1.7–1.8 million barrels per day when condensates are included.

This discrepancy reveals a chronic problem: OPEC only counts crude oil, while Nigeria includes condensates in its data, creating conflicting accounts of actual performance.

Structural challenges are putting pressure on the sector.

During 2025 and early 2026, the sector suffered from oil thefts, pipeline sabotage, infrastructure deterioration, and investment delays. These factors led to production fluctuations that disrupted financial planning in an economy heavily reliant on oil revenues as a primary source of foreign exchange.

Direct repercussions on the economy and refineries

Lower crude production is reducing dollar inflows at a time when Abuja is seeking to support its currency and finance an ambitious budget.

This also affected crude oil supplies to local refineries, most notably the Dangote refinery, which was forced to look for alternative sources to ensure continued operation.

Advanced location in Africa and an untapped opportunity globally

Despite failing to reach its quota, Nigeria remains Africa's largest oil producer, ahead of Algeria and Libya. But in a sensitive global market, where OPEC production reached about 35 million barrels per day in March, not fully utilizing the quota means missing out on potential revenue at a critical time.

Between recovery and commitment

Current indicators reflect a real improvement, but it remains below the required level. If the root causes of operational and security bottlenecks are not addressed quickly, Nigeria’s oil recovery will remain limited in impact, while its OPEC quota remains a deferred goal.